NCAA baseball seeding predictions

With most of the major conference tourneys starting this week, I thought I would give one last seeding projection for the NCAA baseball tournament:

I see the teams in four distinct groups:

Seeds 1-5

1. Arizona State
2. Virginia
3. Texas
4. Coastal Carolina
5. Florida

These five teams are clearly above the rest of the nation. They are the top 5 in the polls and in the RPI.

Seeds 6-8

6. Louisville
7. UCLA
8. Georgia Tech

These three teams are all ranked between 6-10 in both the RPI and the polls. Georgia Tech has a chance to move up a few notches if it can win the ACC tournament. Louisville must win the Big East to stay in this group.

Seeds 9-13

9. Cal-State Fullerton
10. Miami (FL)
11. South Carolina
12. TCU
13. Arkansas

TCU will need to win the Mountain West if it wants to stay in this group as it's RPI of 21 may not be enough to get a seed otherwise. CSF already has the automatic bid from the Big West and plays a 29-24 CS-Northridge team this weekend. Taking two of three would solidify their placement in this group. Miami, South Carolina, and Arkansas need to win two games in their conference tourneys to stay in the 9-13 seeds.

14-16 seeds, plus two bubble teams

14. Florida State
15. Auburn
16. Oklahoma
Bubble #1 Vanderbilt
Bubble #2 Clemson

A win or two in the conference tourneys will get these teams seeded.


My team, the Ball State Cardinals, plays Bowling Green in the first game of the MAC tourney at 9am this morning. With a RPI of 107 and a record of 26-27, BSU needs to win the tourney to get a chance in the big dance.