Thursday, June 5, 2008

Some new hope, maybe, probably not

The Braves bullpen blew their seventh save of the year yesterday afternoon, losing to the Marlins 6-4. Manny Acosta gave up two two-run homers in the ninth inning to blow the save and get the loss. Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, and rookie Josh Anderson each had two hits. Tom Glavine started the game and gave up 2 runs in 5 innings. However, it took him 97 pitches in those 5 innings, leaving the tired and injured bullpen to pitch the last 4 innings. Closer Rafael Soriano was given the day off because he has just returned from an injury. Presumptive closer John Smoltz announced that he would have season-ending surgery on his shoulder. So, the closing role is Soriano part-time and whoever else we can throw out there for the rest of the games. Not exactly the situation that you want to be in when the team is 3-16 in one-run games.

Today is the MLB first-year player draft. The first round will be televised by ESPN starting at 2pm. The baseball draft is the least interesting of all the major sports drafts. Only 15 of the 48 players drafted in the first round in 2005 have made the majors, and that was three years ago. While I like the minor league system in baseball, it does make the draft uninteresting and more of a lottery than a talent-driven process. For example, I did some research on the 1991-2000 draft picks. Each team only got an average of one player from the first two rounds to actually play in the big show. Teams got an average of 2 players in the first 5 rounds, and 3 players in the first 10 rounds to play on the big stage. With those kind of percentages, it makes the draft an exercise in futility. But, if we did not have the draft, the well funded teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, Yankees, Mariners, and White Sox would have first dibs on everybody. Most of what I have been reading project Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham or Florida State catcher Buster Posey as the number one overall pick. Only 3 of the 43 number one picks have not made the majors (Brien Taylor, Matt Bush, Steve Chilcott), so the number one pick is as close as automatic as you will get.

Today in the draft, Alex Meyer from Greensburg, IN is supposed to be a early-mid first round pick. However, he is represented by Scott Boras, who is not a nice guy and always asks for more money than his clients are worth. I know that is his job to do that, but it scares a lot of teams from drafting a talented player to play for their team. Meyer has a scholarship to Kentucky, so he may not sign a contract anyway, but having Boras has an agent does not help at all.

Just like my softball super regional picks, my NCAA baseball picks select all of the favorites. Here are my selections, in order of confidence:

#3 Arizona State over Fresno State
#4 Florida State over Wichita State
#2 North Carolina over Coastal Carolina
#1 Miami (FL) over Arizona
#7 LSU over UC Irvine
#6 Rice over Texas A&M
#5 CS Fullerton over Stanford
#8 Georgia over North Carolina State

1 comment: