Ball State wins, but drops significantly in the RPI

The Ball State men's basketball team beat Toledo on Saturday, 70-60, to stay undefeated in the MAC. They are 5-0 in the conference after beating all of their MAC West opponents the first time through. They play the East division over the next three weeks before closing out the season with the MAC West opponents again. BSU is 13-4 this season.

The problem with the Cards is that they will need to win the MAC tournament to get a bid to the NCAA tourney. Their current RPI is 108th. They need to be in the top 45 to be in consideration for an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney.

Why did they fall from 90th to 108th over the past week when they won both of their games?

1 - They beat poor competition (EMU ranks 331st, Toledo 323rd in RPI)

2 - Their past and future opponents did not fare well. Butler lost to Wisc-Mil and Morehead State lost to Eastern Kentucky as double-digit favorites. Eastern Illinois and Valporaiso lost games where they were a slight favorite. The EIU game especially hurt because Ball State has played them twice.

3 - A poor conference in general. With conference play in full swing, the MAC is ranked 17th out of the 33 conferences. With the top team Kent State ranked 89th and Miami OH ranked 91st, the competition is not there for BSU to get to where they need to be. With 5 of the top 6 conference teams in the MAC East, BSU only plays them one time while feasting on the West division where the second highest team is ranked 215th.

If BSU wins the rest of their games (excluding the unknown Bracket Buster opponent), they are projected to finish 61st in the RPI, which merits consideration for an at-large bid. But, with a 1-3 record against the Top 100 RPI and a stunning loss to D-2 Alaska-Anchorage, that consideration will be minimal.

The trek begins tonight when the Cards host Morehead State. MSU is one of the tougher teams that BSU will face in their remaining games. Morehead State is 12-8 and is led by Kenneth Faried (17ppg, 14rpg) and Demonte Harper (16ppg). BSU is led by Jarrod Jones (16ppg, 9rpg) and Randy Davis (11ppg, 6apg, 4rpg).