Friday, August 27, 2010

NL division races becoming clearer?

NL East - The Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games. Six of those games were on the road against the Cubs and the Rockies. The Phillies had a chance to gain some ground, but were also 2-5 over the past week, but they hosted the Nationals and the Astros. The Braves hold a 3 game lead in the division. If the Phillies can't beat Washington or Houston at home, do they even have a chance at catching the Braves? I hope not!

Remaining Schedules:
ATL - .488 opp win pct, 19/35 games against teams over .500, 6 games against Philly
PHI - .508 opp win pct, 20/35 games against teams over .500, 6 games against ATL

It looks like the Braves have a slightly easier schedule and a 3 game lead, so I would think that Atlanta has a good chance of keeping this lead. Obviously, the 6 games against the Phillies are important, so a split in those games would be nice.

NL Central - Two weeks ago, the Cardinals swept the Reds in Cincinnati to take a one game lead in the NL Central. Since then the teams have gone in totally different directions. The Cardinals are 4-8, including a 3-5 homestand against the Cubs, Brewers, and Giants. They then lost 2 of 3 at Pittsburgh and lost Thursday night at Washington. Contrast that with what the Reds have done in the last two weeks. The Reds are 9-3 since being swept at home by St Louis. That stretch includes a 6-3 road trip and a sweep of Florida in Cincinnati. The Reds lead the division by 4 games.

Remaining Schedules:
CIN - .466 opp win pct, 10/35 games against teams over .500, 3 games against STL.
STL - .477 opp win pct, 16/35 games against teams over .500, 3 games against CIN.

The Reds have a 4 games lead and a much easier schedule, with only 3 games left against the Cardinals. Barring a breakdown, I think the Reds will win this division.

NL West - The Padres took 2 of 3 games against the Giants two weeks ago to take a 3.5 game lead in the division. Since then, the Padres are 7-3 including a 5-2 road trip. The Giants are 4-5 since the Padres series, but have faced tough competition in the Cardinals, Reds, and Phillies. The Padres lead the division by 6 games.

Remaining Schedules:
SDP - .515 opp win pct, 29/37 games against teams over .500, 7 games against SFG.
SFG - .489 opp win pct, 19/39 games against teams over .500, 7 games against SDP.

Although San Diego has a 6 game lead, they have a tough schedule ahead. They only have 8 games left against teams that are below .500 while the Giants have 20 such games remaining. The 7 games against each other will be important, but if the Giants win the games they are supposed to, this could be a closer division than many people think it will.

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