Obama/Clinton - Indiana primary is important for the first time

The Braves, Ball State, and Brownsburg did not have games yesterday. I'll return with some baseball talk tomorrow. Today, we talk about the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana.

I have lived in Indiana all my life and I've been voting since 1994. This is the first time that I can remember the Indiana primary having any significance at all. Usually, by this time in the primary cycle the nominees for both parties have been decided. That is not the case on the Democratic side this year. Well, it actually HAS been decided, but Hillary Clinton doesn't realize that she can't win the nomination.

Let's assume that Obama wins NC today 55-45, and Clinton wins Indiana 55-45. According to CNN's delegate counter, Obama would be leading by 150 delegates after today. After today, there are only 217 pledged delegates remaining, meaning Clinton would have to win almost 70 percent of those remaining delegates. Even in Clinton wins both primaries today 55-45, she would still be behind by 120 delegates, meaning she would need to win the remaining 6 primaries by a 60-40 margin. Also, considering that Montana and South Dakota are solid Obama states, that leaves the toss-up states of Oregon, Puerto Rico, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Giving Obama the wins in Montana and South Dakota and Clinton the other four states, still leaves Obama with a 121 delegate lead. According to CNN, there are 277 super-delegates that have not committed to a candidate. If Obama still leads at the end of the primaries, I don't think that Clinton would sway 200 of those 277 super-delegates to support her if she is not in the lead at that point.

Even if we use the actual results from Florida (the republican leaders in that state screwed the Democrats) and Michigan (that's our own party's fault) and we still use the assumptions above for the rest of the primaries, Clinton only gains 60 delegates over Obama. She would still be behind by 61 delegates and would need 170 of the 277 super-delegates to back the candidate that would not be leading at that point.

I am voting for Barack Obama today because he is the best candidate of the two. He is trying to unite the people for change in this nation, as opposed to dividing the party trying to fight a losing battle. After 8 years with a questionable president that the people didn't even vote for, I think we need a change.